A recent study from UCLA economists Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu indicates that the rise of artificial intelligence has not caused a spike in unemployment among recent college graduates. The research, published as CESifo Working Paper No. 12994 and NBER Working Paper 35796, analyzed US labor data from June through August 2026.
The unemployment rate for graduates aged 22 to 25 reached 7.3% in the summer of 2026. This figure remains consistent with historical data from the previous four years, which fluctuated between 6.3% and 7.8%. Specifically, the rates were 7.1% in 2022, 6.3% in 2023, 7.8% in 2024, and 7.2% in 2025.
The researchers found no statistically significant correlation between AI exposure in specific occupations and unemployment rates for 2026 graduates. Comparisons against control groups, including older graduates and individuals without degrees, showed no meaningful divergence in employment trends.
An expanded measure of unemployment, which includes individuals who want work but are not actively searching, reached 9.3%. This represents a consistent two-percentage-point gap observed in recent years. The study noted that higher competition was linked to remote-work availability rather than AI adoption.
