The surge in AI accelerator production has created a significant supply chain bottleneck for ABF substrates. Nvidia shipped approximately 3.2 million Blackwell GPU packages by the end of 2025, each requiring these specialized components. Industry leaders like Unimicron, Ibiden, and Shinko Electric Industries dominate the manufacturing, but the entire sector relies on a single material supplier, Japan’s Ajinomoto.
Ajinomoto controls over 95% of the global market for the dielectric film used in these substrates. As AI chips grow in size and complexity, the demand for this film is rising exponentially. A single advanced AI substrate can consume roughly ten times more ABF material than a conventional design, as modern packages now feature more compute dies and high-bandwidth memory stacks.
Technical requirements are forcing substrates to expand in both footprint and layer count. Ibiden projects its cutting-edge substrate sizes will grow from 90 x 90mm in 2026 to 130 x 130mm by 2030. Simultaneously, layer structures are increasing, with some manufacturers targeting 24 layers or more to handle higher signal and power demands, which complicates production and reduces manufacturing yields.
These physical expansions lead to issues like component warpage and increased defect rates. Consequently, manufacturers are shifting focus from simple unit counts to semi-additive process load. Ibiden expects the processing load per AI server substrate to reach 2.5 times the 2024 level by 2028, signaling that current manufacturing capacity is struggling to keep pace with the industry's technical roadmap.
In response to the supply crunch, Ajinomoto announced a price increase of approximately 30% for its ABF film, effective in the third quarter of 2026. While suppliers are expanding capacity, the industry is also exploring alternative technologies, such as glass-core substrates, to overcome the limitations of organic ABF materials and sustain the scaling of future AI hardware.
