Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that China will likely master advanced lithography technology by 2030. He noted that the country possesses strong mass production capabilities, making the development of domestic equipment a matter of time.
Since 2019, the export of EUV lithography systems from ASML to China has been prohibited. Currently, the Chinese supplier SMEE offers scanners for 90-nm chip production using 193-nm dry lithography. Reports suggest the company has developed a 28-nm immersion lithography scanner, but serial production remains unconfirmed.
Industry analysts suggest that even if 28-nm equipment becomes available, mass production would not start before 2028 or 2029. Achieving parity with ASML in DUV lithography by 2030 is considered unlikely, and the gap in EUV technology is even wider due to the lack of functional prototypes.
