Early Bitcoin investor Dan Held believes SpaceX's valuation could reach $100 trillion within two decades. He attributes this growth to the reduction in launch costs, specifically the cost of sending one kilogram of cargo to orbit, which could drop from $20,000 during the Space Shuttle era to under $10 with Starship.
Held predicts that if Starship production continues to scale, SpaceX's valuation could hit $10 trillion within three years. He expects the $100 trillion milestone to be reached by the time he is in his late fifties.
The investor identifies several key growth drivers: Starlink, which he views as a competitor to telecom carriers, and orbital data centers that offer near-zero operating costs. He also mentions missile defense systems for detecting rocket launches from orbit and point-to-point travel, which could reduce a flight from New York to Tokyo to 25 minutes.
To fund these investments, Held sold most of his stake in the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange five years ago. He compares his current conviction in SpaceX to his early investment in Bitcoin, an asset he has studied since 2012.
