TrendForce has revised its 2027 price forecast for HBM memory, projecting a 121% year-over-year increase. The firm attributes this trend to the expanding demand for AI servers and the ongoing competition for production capacity between HBM and general DRAM products.
The market shift toward higher-priced HBM4 and the upcoming introduction of HBM4E are expected to drive prices upward. As AI chip technology evolves, these advanced memory solutions will occupy a larger share of the total market, further influencing the pricing landscape.
To manage costs, several AI XPU manufacturers are considering replacing 12Hi HBM stacks with 8Hi versions in some products. Analysts note that 8Hi configurations offer a balance of performance, supply availability, and cost, making them a priority for evaluation by 2027.
However, the transition to 8Hi stacks presents its own economic challenges. Because 8Hi HBM requires 50% more base dies for the same total capacity compared to 12Hi, the cost per unit of capacity for 8Hi products is estimated to be 10–20% higher than that of 12Hi alternatives.
Ultimately, while adjusting stack layers may provide temporary relief for XPU cost pressures, it is unlikely to reverse the broader trend of rising HBM prices. The industry continues to face significant supply constraints as demand for high-performance memory remains high.
