The concept of adjacent possibilities, introduced by Stuart Kauffman and popularized by Steven Johnson, suggests that innovation occurs when existing systems evolve into new, reachable states. Each invention acts as a door, opening access to further improvements that were previously inaccessible, explaining why similar discoveries often happen simultaneously across the globe.
Historical examples of near-simultaneous breakthroughs include the telegraph in 1837, the telephone in 1876, and the light bulb in 1879. Johannes Gutenberg’s development of the printing press relied on the existing availability of movable type, ink, paper, and wine presses. Similarly, Bell Labs researchers acknowledged that the transistor was an inevitable outcome of ongoing atomic and electron research.
Timing is critical for innovation. Bell Labs developed a videophone in the 1960s and 1970s, but the product failed to find a market fit until 40–50 years later, when consumer hardware like webcams and front-facing cameras became ubiquitous. Charles Babbage also faced similar timing issues with his early computer designs, which were roughly 100 years ahead of their time.
Companies often struggle when they mistake distant possibilities for adjacent ones. In the late 1990s, LEGO invested in high-end graphics computers to digitize its brand, but the technology was too immature for the desired output. Conversely, Minecraft achieved success a decade later using simpler graphics, demonstrating that successful innovation requires aligning new ideas with current technological maturity.
Strategic patience is essential when managing dependencies. After inventing the transistor, Bell Labs continued using vacuum tubes in intercontinental cables for over a decade while refining the transistor's cost, production, and reliability. This approach highlights the risk of adopting immature technologies too early, even when their long-term potential is clear.
