Elon Musk recently linked Tesla and SpaceX in a social media post, reigniting market speculation about a potential merger between the two companies. While neither firm has confirmed official talks, analysts are actively debating the possibility. Barclays suggests that a deal could involve SpaceX acquiring Tesla through a stock transaction, potentially leaving Musk with 37% equity and 56% of voting rights.
The financial context includes SpaceX's public debut on June 12 at $135 per share, reaching a valuation of $1.77 trillion. By October 14, the company's market value rose to $2.07 trillion. In contrast, Tesla shares have declined by approximately 18% this year. Analysts at Wedbush estimate an 80% probability of a merger occurring by 2027, though Musk noted in July that any combination would require a formal process.
Speculation also surrounds the Tesla Roadster, which was first unveiled in 2017 and reportedly utilizes SpaceX thrusters. Polymarket participants currently assign a 60% probability to the vehicle achieving a flight of at least one second. Reports indicate that a remotely operated Roadster may demonstrate hover capabilities using compressed gas thrusters during an upcoming event.
Barclays analysts suggest that a merger deal could potentially emerge before Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, which is scheduled to take place by December 6. The integration strategy, as proposed by the bank, focuses on combining Tesla's robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot projects with the AI initiatives currently being developed at SpaceX.
