Sberbank has developed a development model for the Russian microelectronics market through 2036, supporting the strategy of the United Microelectronics Company (UMC). The forecast evaluates three scenarios based on the consumption of 200 mm silicon wafers, which stood at 0.8–1 million units in 2025, valued at 500 ₽–600 billion.
Under the base scenario, demand is expected to reach 1.2–1.4 million wafers by 2030 and 1.6–1.8 million by 2036, with market value potentially rising to 1.4 ₽–1.5 trillion. The optimistic scenario projects growth to 2–2.2 million wafers, while the conservative outlook anticipates 1.1–1.3 million, assuming only partial implementation of state investment projects.
Growth is primarily driven by localization and import substitution, which are expected to account for 0.6 million wafers of the total increase. Currently, 57% of demand comes from computing infrastructure and telecommunications equipment. However, the industry faces a technological deficit, as 70% of the memory and logic segment relies on processes currently unavailable in Russia, specifically those below 16 nm.
Regarding future demand distribution, 45–65 nm processes will remain the most sought-after, accounting for 39% of the total. Other segments include 90 nm and older processes at 25%, 28 nm at 15%, and advanced nodes of 16 nm or less at 6%. Specialized technologies will make up the remaining 15%.
The UMC, formed by Micron, Angstrem, and NM-Tech, plans to invest 1 ₽ trillion by 2030, with 750 ₽ billion coming from the state budget and 250 ₽ billion from Sberbank. The company aims to achieve a 70% share of domestic solutions in key equipment and material categories by 2030.
