Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket recorded a combined weekly volume of $2.7 billion in crypto-related contracts in mid-October 2026. This performance positions crypto as the second most active category on both platforms, trailing only sports betting.
The surge is largely attributed to high-frequency products, specifically 15-minute Bitcoin price contracts. Kalshi’s Bitcoin contracts alone generated over $2 billion in volume during the week. Meanwhile, the US arm of Polymarket reported between $92 million and $101 million in 15-minute Bitcoin volume during its first full week of operations.
Kalshi experienced broader growth throughout October, reaching a peak weekly volume of $19.03 billion across all categories between October 5 and 11. Daily contract volume on the platform consistently ranged from $3.9 billion to $4.4 billion throughout the month.
The shift toward short-duration event contracts indicates a growing preference for speculative, high-speed exposure to Bitcoin volatility over long-term asset ownership. As spot trading volumes decline, major industry players like Coinbase are increasingly entering the prediction market space to capture this demand.
