Taiwan has blocked access to Coinbase and Kalshi websites due to concerns over illegal betting on upcoming local elections scheduled for November 28, 2026.
CBS News will feature real-time election betting odds from Kalshi, despite a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing that 60% of US adults oppose wagering on election outcomes.
Traders on the Kalshi prediction market project a 3.6% median CPI for December 2026, signaling that inflation will remain well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
The CFTC has proposed redefining event contracts as swaps to assert federal authority over prediction markets amid ongoing legal disputes with state regulators and sports leagues.
The CFTC is moving to classify event contracts as swaps to assert federal jurisdiction over prediction markets and distinguish them from gambling.
The CFTC has introduced two proposals to define event contracts as federal swaps while excluding casino-style gambling, setting the stage for a potential Supreme Court jurisdictional battle.
Prediction markets have lowered the probability of Bitcoin reaching $200 000 in 2026 to a record low of 2%.
Prediction market Kalshi is investigating suspicious trades placed on the appointment of the new White House press secretary, with potential payouts exceeding $9,500.
The CFTC has proposed classifying event contracts as swaps while formally excluding casino-style gambling from its regulatory definition.
The NFL has petitioned the Supreme Court to challenge the classification of Kalshi's sports contracts as swaps, seeking to bring prediction markets under state gambling regulation.
Former Senator Blanche Lincoln, a key architect of the Dodd-Frank Act, is now lobbying for prediction market Kalshi to secure federal oversight for its sports-event contracts.
Kalshi has filed a proposal with the CFTC to launch the first US-regulated perpetual futures contract for WTI crude oil, aiming to bring offshore trading models to domestic markets.
Prediction markets estimate a 32% chance for the passage of California's Proposition 40, a proposed 5% wealth tax on billionaires scheduled for the 2026 election.
Kalshi faces conflicting federal court rulings over its sports-event contracts, as more than 20 states challenge the platform's exemption from local gambling laws.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has launched perpetual futures for the US 500 index, marking a move into traditional financial derivatives.
Prediction markets reached a record $188 billion in Q3 2026, with Kalshi leading the sector amid ongoing legal disputes over the classification of sports contracts as gambling.
Kalshi traders anticipate US diesel prices will drop to $6.20 per gallon by Election Day following a federal tax deferral on dyed fuel.
The upcoming NEXTPredict summit in New York will address the professionalization of prediction markets, as institutional interest grows and user activity fluctuates across major platforms.
US federal appeals courts are divided over whether Kalshi’s prediction market contracts constitute regulated swaps or unlicensed gambling, impacting billions in sports wagers.
Kalshi traders now assign an 85% probability to the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate hikes in October following a weak September jobs report.
