SpaceX shares are facing a potential surge in demand due to the upcoming quarterly rebalancing of the Nasdaq-100 index, expected around September 21. Analysts anticipate the company's weight in the index will increase from approximately 1% to over 3.5%, forcing passive funds to acquire additional shares to maintain index alignment.
The company went public on June 12 with an IPO price of $135 per share, achieving a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. During the offering, the company raised between $85.7 billion and $86 billion. Since its peak of $225.64, the stock price has declined by 31–34%, currently trading in the $147–153 range.
The increase in index weight is linked to the expiration of lockup periods. The first tranche of 911.5 million shares was released on August 6, while a second batch of approximately 378 million shares is scheduled to unlock around September 9–10. These releases increase the public float, which was previously restricted.
J.P. Morgan estimated that the initial inclusion of SpaceX in the Nasdaq-100 in July resulted in $4.3 billion in passive inflows. The upcoming rebalance is expected to drive even larger capital inflows. SpaceX joined the Russell 1000 in late June and the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 under fast-track rules.
