OpenAI CEO Sam Altman reports that major memory chip manufacturers remain cautious about expanding production capacity. Despite the potential for $100 billion in annual free cash flow, companies like Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron Technology are hesitant to invest in new fabrication plants.
This reluctance stems from historical industry cycles characterized by boom-and-bust patterns. Altman noted a past instance where the sector invested $20 billion in capital expenditure while generating only $19 billion in revenue, leading some firms to the brink of bankruptcy.
The current demand for high-bandwidth memory, which is essential for AI accelerators and data centers, is not currently triggering sufficient supply increases. Building new fabs requires years of construction and significant financial commitments, making manufacturers wary of future demand volatility.
Anthropic also highlighted risks regarding potential HBM supply shortages in its IPO filing dated October 26, 2026. Altman suggests that this supply constraint may limit the speed at which AI systems can scale, as memory makers prioritize stability over rapid capacity growth.
