The semiconductor industry is facing a severe shortage of NOR flash and SLC NAND memory chips. Manufacturers are shifting production capacity toward more profitable high-end memory for AI infrastructure, such as HBM and DRAM, leaving less capacity for older, mature technologies.
According to TrendForce, contract prices for NOR flash and SLC NAND rose by more than 100% in the first half of 2026. SLC NAND prices are projected to increase by another 120% to 170% in the second half of the year. Analysts expect this undersupply to persist through 2026 and potentially for the next five years.
The economic disparity between product lines is significant. A 12-inch wafer used for mainstream NAND can generate nearly $20 000 in revenue, whereas the same wafer used for SLC NAND yields only $6 000 to $8 000. This gap discourages new investment in SLC production capacity.
Supply chain constraints are further exacerbated by long lead times for manufacturing equipment, which currently range from 12 to 15 months. JPMorgan forecasts that customers will only receive 70% to 80% of their orders, while BNP Paribas expects the average NAND price to reach $279.50 per terabyte in 2026, up from $73.10 in 2025.
