The McKinsey Global Institute released a report on September 29, 2026, forecasting labor market shifts in the US by 2035. While AI and automation could reduce demand for 36 million jobs, representing nearly 21% of current work hours, the economy is expected to generate 40 to 41 million new positions.
Of the 36 million roles facing lower demand, 25 million workers may remain in related fields with updated duties. However, approximately 11 million people, or 6.5 to 7% of the workforce, will likely need to transition to entirely new occupations. McKinsey estimates this figure could range from 6 million to 16 million.
To facilitate this shift, the US would need to reach 770,000 occupational transitions annually. This represents a rate 3.6 times higher than the historical average of 215,000 transitions per year. The report identifies lower-wage workers and those without college degrees as the most vulnerable groups.
Sectors expected to see the most disruption include retail, office administration, sales, and transportation. Conversely, the strongest job growth is projected in healthcare, construction, and professional and technical services. Demographic factors, such as an aging population and lower immigration, are also influencing these forecasts.
