Prediction markets have adjusted the probability of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX by the end of 2027 to 66%. This figure represents a notable increase from the 52% probability recorded just 24 hours prior to the latest market update.
The sub-market for January 1, 2028, saw its YES probability rise by 20 points to reach 66%. This current valuation contrasts with the 46% probability observed one week ago, reflecting growing speculation regarding the consolidation of Elon Musk’s enterprises.
Market participants currently assign a low probability to an imminent announcement. The market for September 30 indicates only a 2.4% chance of a merger, while the sub-market for December 31 remains relatively stable at 18.5%.
Future market shifts depend on official communications from Tesla, SpaceX, or Elon Musk. Formal filings with the SEC or verified executive statements would likely alter current odds, while official denials or clarifications could reduce market expectations.
