The Russian manufacturing sector could increase output by one-third by 2034 while maintaining current employment levels of 10.5 million workers. Achieving this requires an annual productivity growth rate of approximately 3%.
Data from 2018 to 2024 shows that manufacturing output grew by 33%, while productivity increased by 25.4%. During this period, four-fifths of production growth was driven by productivity gains rather than additional labor.
Demographic trends suggest the available workforce will shrink. By 2034, the sector may face a labor supply of 9.65 to 10.13 million people. To compensate, the industry must avoid replacing a portion of the 3.2 million employees expected to retire or leave over the decade.
The government aims to reach 145 robots per 10,000 workers by 2030, up from the current 29. However, even if the target of over 100,000 robots is met, automation will likely contribute less than 0.25 percentage points to annual productivity growth.
