JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for the first time. The firm projects a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years, surpassing traditional assets like US large-cap stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%.
Despite the positive return forecast, Bitcoin is not included in the firm's recommended portfolio allocations. The report highlights high volatility for the asset, projecting an annualized volatility of 55%, which is significantly higher than the 18% forecast for US large-cap stocks.
The 2027 outlook covers over 200 asset classes and strategies. JPMorgan expects a traditional 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds to generate annual returns of 7%. The firm suggests that adding 30% in alternative investments could increase annual returns to 7.5% and improve the Sharpe ratio by 21%.
The firm forecasts US real GDP growth of 2.1% and nominal growth in the developed world of 4.2%. Productivity growth is expected to rise by 50 to 120 basis points, driven by AI adoption. Global aggregate bonds are projected to return 5.3%, marking the highest level in two decades.
