J.P. Morgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market assumptions for the first time in the report's 31-year history. Analysts project an average annual return of 10% for the cryptocurrency over the next 10 to 15 years.
The forecast for Bitcoin exceeds expected returns for traditional assets. The bank estimates annual returns of 7.5% for large-cap US stocks, 7.7% for small-cap stocks, 8.2% for REITs, 5.6–6.6% for US bonds, and 5.5% for gold.
Despite the growth outlook, JPMorgan maintains a cautious stance due to high volatility, which is projected at 55% annually compared to 18% for large-cap stocks and 17.2% for gold. The bank does not currently view Bitcoin as a diversification tool.
Experts categorize Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary policy easing. The report notes that the lack of cash flows and reliance on liquidity and regulation complicate long-term forecasting for the digital asset.
The bank also raised its long-term forecast for large-cap US stocks by 0.8 percentage points to 7.5%, citing AI-driven productivity gains. The projected return for a 60/40 portfolio was increased to 7% annually.
