J.P. Morgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report for the first time. The firm projects a 10% compound annual return for the cryptocurrency over the next 10 to 15 years, placing it above U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5%, a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio at 7%, and gold at 5.5%.
The forecast highlights significant volatility for Bitcoin, estimating it at 55% annually compared to 17% for gold. This volatility results in an arithmetic average return of 20.9%. Due to these price swings and unstable correlations, the bank has not yet integrated Bitcoin into its primary covariance matrices, opting instead for a separate, limited comparison model.
J.P. Morgan also dismissed the theory that currency debasement will drive significant crypto adoption. Meanwhile, the bank continues its own blockchain initiatives, including the migration of its JPM Coin token to the Ethereum network and participation in tokenized stock projects alongside firms like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs.
Market data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $526.7 million on Monday, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund accounting for $665.2 million. These inflows reduced the net outflows for October to approximately $88 million, while Bitcoin’s price traded near $82,000.
