JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report for the first time. The firm outlines three scenarios for annual returns over the next decade, based on a spot price of $83 000 as of September 30.
The base-case scenario projects an annual return of 10%, potentially reaching $215 000 by 2036. The bull case anticipates 16.6% annual growth, leading to a price of $386 000, while the bear case suggests a decline of 11.2% annually to $25 000.
Analysts note that Bitcoin exhibits 55% historical volatility, which is approximately three times higher than that of stocks or gold. Due to this instability and unpredictable correlations with other assets, the firm currently excludes Bitcoin from its core risk models.
The report highlights that 10% of surveyed family office clients hold crypto assets, with 17% planning to prioritize digital assets. JPMorgan maintains a 5.5% return forecast for gold, noting that central banks continue to increase their holdings of the metal.
