Goldman Sachs Research projects that artificial intelligence could temporarily displace approximately 9% of the US workforce. This estimate, led by economist Joseph Briggs, suggests that up to 15 million people could be affected over the next decade. The bank previously estimated a displacement rate of 6% to 7%.
The forecast is based on a projected 15% boost in productivity driven by AI. Historical data indicates that each 1% gain in productivity from technology increases job destruction rates by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points over two years. Currently, about 30 million jobs are created and destroyed in the US annually.
The disruption is expected to impact white-collar and entry-level roles, specifically in technology, consulting, graphic design, and administrative support. Data already shows AI reducing payroll growth by 10,000 to 15,000 jobs per month in these sectors. The US unemployment rate could rise by up to 0.6 percentage points.
Despite the short-term impact, researchers anticipate that the labor market will adjust as new occupations emerge. Historically, 85% of US job growth over the past 80 years stemmed from new roles created by technology. The bank projects that AI could eventually raise annual US labor productivity by about 1.5 percentage points.
