The French Ministry of Finance released its draft budget for 2027 on September 19, 2026. Projections indicate that the public debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 119.3% in 2026 and rise to 121.7% by 2027. As of the first quarter of 2026, the national debt stood at 117.5% of GDP, amounting to approximately €3.536 trillion.
The government forecasts a public deficit of 5.4% of GDP for 2026, compared to 5.1% in 2025. The target for 2027 is to reduce this figure to 5%. To support revenue, the total tax burden is expected to increase from 43.9% of GDP in 2026 to 44.2% in 2027, representing a rise of 0.3 percentage points.
Macroeconomic forecasts remain conservative, with GDP growth projected at 0.5% for 2026 and 1.0% for 2027. Inflation is expected to be 2.1% in 2026, moderating to 1.8% in 2027. The Haut Conseil des finances publiques is currently reviewing these projections, and its upcoming assessment will be closely monitored by bond markets.
