The NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel recently reported that approximately 22 Starship launches may be required to support a lunar lander mission. This estimate, shared by panel member Charlie Precourt during a quarterly meeting, highlights the logistical challenges of orbital refueling for the Artemis program.
SpaceX founder Elon Musk disputed the figure, stating that the actual number of launches needed will be closer to 6 to 8. The discrepancy stems from ongoing uncertainties regarding the boil-off rates of cryogenic methane and liquid oxygen in orbit, as well as the efficiency of propellant transfer between vehicles.
NASA continues to evaluate the performance and lift capacity of the Starship rocket to determine the necessary mass for a lunar voyage. While SpaceX aims to increase its launch cadence to twice weekly by the end of 2027, current projections suggest that fueling a single depot could still take approximately three months.
Despite these technical hurdles, NASA remains committed to its goal of a human lunar landing in 2028. The agency is actively working with SpaceX and Blue Origin to identify and remove development barriers, with leadership focused on resource allocation to maintain the established mission schedule.
