The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) projects a 16.5% year-on-year decline in retail sales for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in October. Compared to September, sales are expected to drop by 1.3%. The market penetration rate for NEVs is forecasted to decrease by 0.1 percentage points from the record high of 67.0% reached in September.
Total retail sales for passenger cars are estimated at 1.6 million units for October, representing a 28.9% year-on-year decrease. This follows a trend where most major manufacturers reported achieving less than 60% of their annual sales targets during the first three quarters of the year. Weekly data shows daily retail sales fluctuated from 58,000 in the second week to 47,000 in the third week.
Market recovery remains constrained by weak household income expectations and intense dealer competition. While manufacturers face pressure to increase fourth-quarter volumes, concerns over profitability and inventory management limit aggressive price-cutting strategies. The CPCA notes that the gasoline vehicle market continues to face pressure from high fuel costs, while NEV demand remains relatively stable.
Data from October 1 to 18 indicates that NEV retail sales reached 520,000 units, down 13% compared to the same period last year. In the first nine months of the year, total NEV retail sales amounted to 7.758 million units, a 12.8% decline. The CPCA anticipates daily sales to reach approximately 49,000 in the fourth week and 79,000 in the final week of October.
