A study by the Carnegie China think tank reveals a shift in the global distribution of top-tier AI researchers. The share of elite AI talent working in China rose from 27.1% in 2022 to 40.6% in 2025. During the same period, the proportion of such experts based in the United States declined from 46.4% to 34.2%.
Researchers attribute this trend to the expansion of China's domestic AI industry and stricter visa policies for STEM graduates heading to the US. By 2025, 69% of researchers who completed their undergraduate studies in China chose to remain in the country for employment. The analysis utilized data from authors of papers presented at the NeurIPS conference.
Despite the domestic retention, China remains the primary source of global AI talent, with individuals of Chinese background accounting for 57% of the total sample in 2025, an increase of 11 percentage points. Meanwhile, the US remains a major destination for international talent, recording a net inflow of 2,145 researchers in 2025, with the share of Chinese-educated researchers working in the US rising by 4 percentage points.
