Jack Clark, co-founder of Anthropic, presented findings from the company's internal economic model during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on October 17, 2026. The model outlines potential economic trajectories for the United States, suggesting that AI could drive the national GDP to approximately $44 trillion by 2030.
The projections are based on three distinct scenarios. A modest growth path estimates a GDP of $34.1 trillion, while an extreme scenario forecasts $44.4 trillion. This high-end estimate relies on the assumption that AI systems will achieve high levels of autonomy and recursive self-improvement by 2027.
Clark highlighted that the extreme growth scenario could lead to significant labor market shifts, including increased displacement risks for knowledge workers and potential spikes in unemployment. He emphasized the necessity for international regulatory cooperation to address these challenges and prepare social safety nets.
Public sentiment currently aligns with more conservative growth expectations, with surveys suggesting a 10% GDP increase and a 5% unemployment rate. Anthropic released its economic scenarios explorer in September 2026 to facilitate further debate among policymakers regarding legislative frameworks and the economic impact of automation.
