Researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu analyzed the impact of AI on employment among recent college graduates aged 22 to 25. The study focused on whether firms are reducing entry-level hiring due to AI's ability to perform standardized office tasks.
Data from the US Census Bureau's Current Population Survey shows that the summer unemployment rate for recent graduates in 2026 was 7.3 percent. This figure remains within the range observed between 2022 and 2024, which fluctuated from 6.3 percent to 7.8 percent.
The researchers compared these figures against non-college graduates of the same age and older college graduates aged 30 to 49. Statistical tests conducted for the 2022–2026 period revealed no significant differences in unemployment trends across these groups.
The study notes that while AI spending and ChatGPT Enterprise usage have increased over the last 12 months, this has not yet resulted in unusually high unemployment for the class of 2026. The findings contrast with earlier payroll data analysis from ADP.
The authors suggest that future graduating classes may face different outcomes if workplace AI adoption intensifies. They emphasize that continued monitoring of labor market data is necessary to determine if long-term displacement effects will emerge.
