Researchers participating in the ECDSA.Fail competition, launched by Eigen Labs in late May, have reduced the resource benchmark for a potential quantum attack on Bitcoin and Ethereum cryptography by 86%. Over 100 participants utilized AI coding agents to optimize quantum circuits, lowering the resource score from 10.75 billion to 1.496 billion by July 26.
The most efficient circuit design identified in the study required 1,151 logical qubits and approximately 1.3 million Toffoli gates. A subsequent iteration successfully reduced the gate count to below 1 million. These calculations focus on the resources needed to uncover private keys, though the study excludes the total hardware costs required for a full-scale attack.
The research involved contributors from organizations including Theta Labs, MultiVM Labs, Eigen Labs, Trail of Bits, StarkWare, and the Ethereum Foundation. While the timing of a viable quantum attack, known as Q-Day, remains uncertain, NIST has already begun standardizing post-quantum cryptographic replacements to phase out classical algorithms by 2035.
The broader industry is increasing investment in quantum defense research. Galaxy Digital recently committed up to $5 million to these efforts, while a group of nine firms, including BlackRock and Coinbase, pledged $15 million over three years to support general Bitcoin security research.
