The US Department of Energy has launched the Quantum Genesis Q Competition, allocating up to $215 million to accelerate the development of fault-tolerant quantum computing. The initiative invites private companies to build machines capable of performing at least 100 logical qubits with hundreds of millions of reliable operations, with a target deployment date of 2028.
This development raises concerns regarding the security of Bitcoin, which relies on elliptic-curve cryptography. According to Google researchers, breaking the 256-bit system used by Bitcoin could require between 1,200 and 1,450 logical qubits. While the current DOE target is 100 qubits, the project represents a significant step toward large-scale, error-corrected quantum computations.
Data from Glassnode indicates that approximately 6.04 million BTC, representing 30.2% of the total issued supply, are currently held in outputs where the public key is visible on-chain. These assets are considered the most vulnerable to potential quantum-based attacks if key-breaking technology becomes practical in the future.
Bitcoin developers are actively exploring mitigation strategies, including draft proposals BIP 360 and BIP 361. These documents outline potential paths to reduce public-key exposure and transition to more secure signature schemes. Such a migration would require coordination across wallets, exchanges, and custodians, a process expected to take several years to complete.
