Traders on the Polymarket prediction platform have revised their outlook on the upcoming Anthropic IPO. The probability that the AI company will achieve the largest market cap listing of 2026 has dropped to 31.7%, down from approximately 46% just one week ago.
The contract, which has seen over $7.4 million in trading volume, currently favors SpaceX. As of November 4, 2026, market participants assign a 65% to 66.5% probability that SpaceX will retain the title of the largest IPO of the year, following its own public debut on June 12, 2026.
Anthropic filed its Form S-1 with the SEC on October 26, 2026, planning a Nasdaq listing under the ticker ANT. The company reported revenue of $16.3 billion and a net loss of $80.7 billion for the first half of 2026, with the latter figure attributed to non-cash adjustments.
The company is targeting a mid-November 2026 debut with an expected valuation between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion. Polymarket traders currently price an 85% chance that the listing will occur in November 2026, suggesting high confidence in the timing of the event.
SpaceX raised approximately $75 billion during its June IPO, achieving a valuation between $1.77 trillion and $1.8 trillion. Anthropic must reach the upper end of its projected valuation range to surpass the benchmark set by the aerospace company.
