A Polymarket trader identified as 0xA2 has recorded $917 000 in profit following the U.S. midterm elections. The majority of these gains remain unrealized as the user awaits the final vote count in Alaska, where there is a 14% probability of an outcome that could reverse the position.
The trader initially wagered $609 644 on the outcome that Republicans would not win any swing states in the Senate. This position, placed when odds were at 36%, has grown to a value of $1.48 million. Additionally, the user realized $106 115 in profit from a separate bet on the Texas Senate race.
Activity on prediction platforms surged during the midterms, with Polymarket and Kalshi recording over $546 million in notional volume during the two-week period. The top 10 traders on Polymarket each saw profits exceeding $170 000 during the election cycle.
The 2024 presidential election previously established Polymarket as a major prediction market, with its flagship market reaching $3.6 billion in volume. Despite this growth, analysts note that prediction markets are not infallible, citing a recent miscalculation regarding the Brazilian presidential election.
