The OECD released its Interim Economic Outlook on September 23, 2026, raising the global GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.9% from the previous 2.8%. This adjustment is attributed to significant capital spending on AI infrastructure, data centers, and chips, which helps offset energy supply disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
The United States is projected to see growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, supported by AI-related investments. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea are benefiting as technology exporters. In contrast, China is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027, while the euro area remains at 1.0% for both years.
The outlook for 2027 shows a global growth downgrade to 3.0% from 3.1%. Inflation projections for the G20 have also been revised upward: for 2026, the forecast rose to 4.1% from 4.0%, and for 2027, it increased to 3.6% from 3.1%.
The OECD identified several downside risks, including energy market volatility, rising bond yields, El Nino events, and potential low returns on AI investments. If these risks occur, global growth could decrease by 0.7 percentage points in 2027, with inflation potentially rising by an additional 1.1 percentage points.
