The NFL has formally requested that the U.S. Supreme Court review a Third Circuit ruling that classified sports event contracts on the Kalshi platform as swaps under CFTC jurisdiction. The league argues these instruments should fall under state gambling oversight, aligning with conflicting rulings from the Sixth and Ninth Circuits.
In its amicus brief, the NFL highlighted concerns regarding market manipulation, the potential for betting on injuries or officiating, and the lack of age verification compared to standard sports betting. The league noted that the CFTC currently employs only 543 people, which it considers insufficient for effective market policing.
Data cited in the brief indicates that NFL-related contracts accounted for $1.8 billion of the $3.3 billion traded across prediction markets during the season's first Sunday. Represented by former Attorney General William Barr, the league aims to secure a Supreme Court decision before the 2027 season.
While the NFL seeks stricter regulation, other leagues have pursued different strategies. MLB named Polymarket an exclusive sponsor and signed an integrity agreement with the CFTC, while the NHL has licensed its trademarks to prediction markets. Meanwhile, analysts at Bernstein estimate the potential market opportunity at $10 trillion.
