Traders on the CFTC-regulated prediction platform Kalshi are betting on an increase in September consumer prices. Market contracts for a month-over-month CPI rise exceeding 0.4% are trading at 90 cents, indicating a 90% probability. Meanwhile, annual inflation for September is being priced by the market within a range of 3.5% to 3.7%.
Economists at Continuum Economics project a 0.6% monthly rise in CPI, which could push the annual inflation rate to approximately 3.7%. This forecast sits at the upper limit of current market expectations. Contracts for annual inflation above 3.5% are priced at 84 cents, while those for above 3.6% trade at 42 cents.
Rising energy costs and a favorable economic climate are identified as the primary drivers behind the anticipated inflation growth. Trading volume on these specific CPI contracts has reached hundreds of thousands of dollars and continues to trend upward as the release date approaches.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to publish the official September CPI data on October 14, 2026. This report will serve as the settlement trigger for Kalshi contracts, which rely on the first non-preliminary print. The outcome will determine whether market participants or professional economists provided a more accurate forecast.
