Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi are betting on the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report for September. The platform offers contracts allowing participants to wager on whether the number of new jobs added will exceed thresholds of 90 000, 100 000, or 125 000.
The contract for exceeding 90 000 new jobs is currently priced at 60 cents, which indicates a 56% probability of reaching that level. The total trading volume for these specific payroll contracts has reached approximately $119 000.
Market sentiment aligns with economist forecasts, which estimate job growth between 84 000 and 95 000 for September. For context, the August report showed 162 000 new jobs added to the economy.
Kalshi is a prediction market regulated by the CFTC that enables users to trade contracts based on official government data. Beyond payroll numbers, the platform also provides options to bet on the unemployment rate and combinations with jobless claims.
