Prediction market Kalshi reports an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates at its October meeting. This shift in market sentiment follows the release of September employment data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed an increase of only 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs.
The outlook for a rate pause has strengthened throughout the week. Following the PCE inflation report on September 30, 2026, the probability of a hold was estimated at 65%. Other recent market snapshots indicated the likelihood of a pause between 72% and 75.5%, with potential rate hike odds ranging from 24% to 28%.
Similar trends are observed on platforms like Polymarket and in CME fed funds futures. The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on October 27 and 28, 2026, with a final decision expected on October 28. Kalshi, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, will settle its contracts based on the outcome of this meeting.
