Prediction market platform Kalshi estimates a 62% probability that the year-over-year headline inflation for August 2026 will exceed 3.3%. The corresponding contract on the platform is currently trading at 62 cents.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the August data on September 11. This report will be available four days before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which is set for September 15–16.
Economists surveyed by FactSet expect headline inflation to reach 3.3% year-over-year, following a 3.4% reading in July and a mid-2026 peak of 3.5%. Core CPI is projected at 2.4%, down from 2.5% in July.
Monthly headline gains are forecast between 0.3% and 0.4%, with core monthly changes expected at 0.2%. Analysts identify gasoline prices as a potential upside risk, with an 18% probability assigned to inflation exceeding 3.4%.
Market pricing for a potential interest rate hike in September currently fluctuates between 60% and 70%. A reading of 3.5% or higher could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to raise rates for the first time since 2023.
