JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for the first time. The report, which serves as a benchmark for institutional allocators, ranks thirteen asset classes based on expected compound annual returns over the next decade.
The bank projects a 10% annual compound return for Bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years. This forecast places Bitcoin at the top of the list, ahead of REITs at 8.2%, small-cap stocks at 7.7%, and U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5%. Gold is ranked significantly lower with an expected return of 5.5%.
According to the projections, a $100 investment in Bitcoin would grow to $259 over a decade, compared to $206 for large-cap stocks and $171 for gold. The report notes that Bitcoin carries an annualized volatility of 55%, significantly higher than the 18% volatility associated with stocks.
JPMorgan highlights that Bitcoin is now being evaluated alongside growth assets like REITs and small caps rather than gold. The bank explicitly dismissed the argument that Bitcoin serves as a hedge against currency debasement, labeling that perspective as wide of the mark.
