IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that the global economy is experiencing a tug of war between an AI investment boom and an energy supply shock caused by conflicts in the Middle East, specifically the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Since August 2026, investments in data centers and hardware have driven corporate earnings and consumer demand, while simultaneously creating inflationary pressure. AI-related hardware currently accounts for over 10% of global goods trade.
The trend, which began in the US, has expanded to Asian markets including China, India, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore. The IMF projects that successful AI adoption could increase global growth by 0.1 to 0.8 percentage points annually, with a central estimate of 0.5 percentage points.
Georgieva highlighted financial risks, noting that companies investing in AI infrastructure face high leverage. Additionally, approximately 60% of jobs in advanced economies could be impacted by AI-related technology shocks.
Global growth is projected at 3% for 2026, while global public debt is nearing or exceeding 100% of GDP. These topics, alongside fiscal management and AI oversight, are set to be discussed at the upcoming IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok.
