Alex Imas, director of AGI economics at Google DeepMind, suggests that AI-driven growth may result in a 4% to 5% increase in GDP. He argues that automation reduces production costs, which leads to lower consumer prices. Because GDP measures the dollar value of production, falling prices can limit the headline growth figures despite increased output.
Imas cites agriculture as a historical precedent, noting its share of GDP dropped from 40% to 2% even as production volume rose. He challenges optimistic forecasts from figures like Will MacAskill and Samuel Altman, who assume that prices and demand will remain stable as AI capacity expands.
Regarding current economic conditions, Imas stated on October 14, 2026, that the existing 2% US economic growth already incorporates AI and productivity gains. He joined Google DeepMind in May 2026 while on leave from the University of Chicago to research how AI coordination influences economic structures.
