The market for securitized lending backed by data centers has grown significantly, rising from under $500 million before 2020 to a projected range of $27 billion to $30 billion in 2025. JPMorgan forecasts that this segment could reach $30 billion to $40 billion annually by 2026 and 2027, accounting for 7 to 10 percent of total CMBS and asset-backed securities issuance.
Atrium estimates that $128 billion in U.S. data-center debt will mature between 2025 and 2028, with that figure rising to $213 billion by 2029. This volume exceeds the maturity wall currently facing U.S. office CMBS. Investors are now facing new risks, including tenant concentration among hyperscale providers, potential technological obsolescence of facilities, and power-grid constraints.
Due to these uncertainties, risk premiums on data-center-linked CMBS have increased, with recent deals requiring wider pricing spreads. Analysts also note concerns regarding overbuilding in certain metropolitan markets. The loans issued today will reach maturity during 2028 and 2029, a period when Atrium expects the pressure on debt repayment to be at its most intense.
