Bitcoin is currently testing the $80 000 support level after failing to maintain its position above $83 000. Analyst Benjamin Cowen notes that a weekly close below $83 000 on October 25 could signal a bearish trend for the remainder of 2026. Recent market volatility led to $91.19 million in long position liquidations during a single four-hour selloff.
Data from Glassnode indicates that corporate holders of Bitcoin have an average cost basis of approximately $80 000 per coin. A drop below this threshold would place these institutional holdings into a loss, potentially impacting market confidence. Additionally, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of about $322 million on October 22, reflecting a decline in institutional buying interest.
Market participants are monitoring several upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28 and the release of inflation data on October 29. External pressures, such as Brent crude oil prices reaching $116.72 amid supply concerns, may further influence asset prices. If the current support fails, analysts identify potential downside levels at $77 876 and a range between $72 500 and $76 700.
Historical data from Binance Research suggests that Bitcoin has experienced an average decline of 56% during previous US midterm election years. While this trend is based on three cycles, it adds to the current market uncertainty. A recovery and sustained hold above $83 000 would be required to invalidate the prevailing bearish outlook as the midterm elections approach.
