Bitcoin dropped below $84,000 during Asian trading hours on Thursday, reaching a price of approximately $83,200. This decline occurred as the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds climbed to its highest level since 2007, closing at 5.11% on Wednesday after reaching an intraday high of 5.13%.
The US Treasury announced a $6 billion ceiling for a bond buyback program targeting debt with 20 to 30 years remaining. Analysts attribute the bond selloff to robust US business data and rising oil prices, which have increased market expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening.
Data from the CME Group Fedwatch tool indicates a 75.3% probability of an interest rate hike to a range of 4.00-4.25% at the October 28 meeting. Market participants currently assign a 70% probability to an October rate increase, up from approximately 55% the previous day.
Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar present potential challenges for risk assets like Bitcoin, particularly regarding the cost of dollar-funded leveraged trades. Analysts suggest that resilient labor market data or hawkish signals could further support yields and the dollar in the near term.
Historical data from CoinGlass shows that September has an average return of -2.34%, though Bitcoin has recorded gains in each September since 2022. While October has historically averaged a 19.92% increase, the asset saw a 3.69% decline during the same month last year.
