Analyst Darkfost reported on October 18, 2026, that the cycle-adjusted MVRV percentile for Bitcoin dropped to 25.7%. This metric compares current market value to realized value, adjusted for historical cycles. Historically, this range is associated with accumulation phases rather than market euphoria.
The decline follows multiple failed attempts by Bitcoin to sustain prices at or above $87,000 between late September and early October 2026. At the time of the report, the spot price was trading between $81,700 and $81,900, reflecting a pullback from the resistance level.
Current data indicates that long-term holders are net distributors of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, demand for US spot Bitcoin ETFs has cooled, shifting from positive net inflows in September 2026 to flattened or slightly negative flows in October.
The analysis suggests that a potential strategic entry point depends on the market maintaining support near the $81,700 level and demonstrating signs of a bullish reversal. The current metric remains above the extreme undervaluation band associated with major market lows.
