One year ago, on October 6, Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $126 000 on Binance. Currently, the asset trades near $86 000, which is 32% below its record peak. Following the ATH, the market experienced a major liquidation event on October 11, 2025, with forced position closures exceeding $19 billion.
The price hit a low of $58 000 on July 1, 2026, marking a 54% decline from the peak, followed by a 49% recovery. Analysts from QCP and Glassnode note that the current market structure is less leveraged than in 2025. The annual funding rate for perpetual futures is around 5.4%, suggesting that spot capital is driving the current recovery.
Institutional demand via ETFs has cooled. On October 5, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $89.9 million, interrupting two days of inflows totaling $293 million. IBIT from BlackRock recorded $69.9 million in inflows, while ARKB and FBTC saw outflows of $85.2 million and $74.5 million respectively.
Macroeconomic factors remain a constraint. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October is 21.6%. Yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasury bonds are near 5.3% and 5.7%, respectively, reaching 24-year highs. These high borrowing costs continue to limit the growth potential of risk assets.
