Asset managers are increasingly suggesting that investors with significant exposure to AI stocks replace portions of their bond holdings with Bitcoin. This shift is driven by the fact that US federal debt has exceeded $40 trillion, while long-term Treasuries have seen negative real returns over the last decade.
Data from a 2026 River Financial report indicates that a 10% allocation to Bitcoin doubled the final value of a standard 60/40 portfolio over the past ten years. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recommends that investors maintain a Bitcoin allocation between 2% and 10%, arguing that a 0% position is a misallocation.
BlackRock has noted Bitcoin's low correlation with traditional asset classes, suggesting it could serve as a diversifier. However, analysts warn that Bitcoin's historical volatility makes it a distinct alternative to bonds, as a 30% drawdown in a portfolio's safe allocation differs significantly from the impact of negative real returns.
The argument for Bitcoin is further supported by its fixed supply of 21 million coins, which contrasts with the unlimited issuance of government debt. As AI infrastructure companies dominate major indices, experts suggest that portfolios heavily weighted in AI equities face risks if the sector slows, making the role of traditional bonds as a hedge increasingly questionable.
