Anthropic, the developer of Claude, published a technical report and interactive tool in September 2026 modeling the economic impact of AI. The study examines how various adoption rates affect US GDP, employment, and wages by 2030, though the company notes these scenarios are not formal predictions.
In a moderate growth scenario, AI performs half of all cognitive tasks, leading to an 8.3% increase in GDP and a 3.9% decline in cognitive employment. While office worker wages may see a slight decrease, wages in other sectors could rise by nearly 6%.
An extreme scenario suggests a 15.4% annual growth rate and a 32.4% increase in GDP compared to a non-AI baseline. However, this model predicts a 21.5% drop in cognitive employment, an 11.9% overall unemployment rate, and an 11.5% decline in office worker wages.
The analysis indicates a significant shift in income distribution. The labor share of national income is projected to fall from 60% to 45.2%, while capital income could increase by over 80%, favoring asset owners over employees.
The findings align with an August 2026 Morning Consult survey of US adults, where median expectations matched the moderate growth scenario. CEO Dario Amodei previously suggested in May 2025 that up to half of entry-level office jobs could vanish within five years.
