Anthropic has released an economic model projecting three potential scenarios for the US economy by 2030, driven by the integration of artificial intelligence. The report, titled Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI, allows users to input their own forecasts to see how AI might influence GDP, employment rates, and wage levels.
The modest scenario estimates a GDP of $34,1 trillion, representing a 1,6% gain. In the substantial case, where AI performs half of all knowledge work, GDP rises to $36,3 trillion with unemployment near 5% and stagnant wages. The extreme scenario assumes AI improves itself without human intervention, pushing GDP to $44,4 trillion with 15% annual growth, though knowledge worker wages drop by over 10%.
Labor's share of national income varies across these projections, falling from a slight decline in the modest case to 56,1% in the substantial scenario and 45,2% in the extreme one. The company notes that in the most rapid growth scenario, economic gains are distributed unevenly.
In August, Anthropic surveyed 10 980 people regarding their expectations for 2030. The typical respondent predicted a 10% higher GDP, aligning closely with the substantial scenario. Roughly 10% of those surveyed anticipated the extreme outcome, reflecting public concerns regarding potential job losses linked to AI development.
