Anthropic has published a report titled Economic Scenarios, which outlines three potential trajectories for the US economy by 2030 based on the adoption of artificial intelligence. The models compare outcomes against a baseline economy without AI integration.
In the modest scenario, the US GDP is projected to reach $34.1 trillion by 2030, representing a 1.6% increase over the baseline. The extreme scenario forecasts a GDP of $44.4 trillion, a 32.4% increase compared to the baseline.
The extreme model suggests that knowledge-worker wages could decline by 11.5%, with unemployment in this sector rising to 17.9%. Overall national unemployment could reach 11.9%, while labor's share of income may drop from 60% to 45.2%.
The research is based on data from the Economic Index series, which Anthropic has tracked since early 2025. The model focuses exclusively on cognitive tasks and does not account for robotics, physical labor, manufacturing, or logistics.
Anthropic also conducted a survey of over 10,000 US adults, whose expectations align with the substantial scenario, predicting a 10% GDP growth and 5% unemployment. The company has released an interactive tool, Econ Scenario Explorer, for public use.
