German Gref, CEO of Sberbank, stated at the Far Eastern Economic Forum that the Russian economy has overcooled. He supported this claim with five arguments: a decline in investments over the last four quarters, a drop in business climate indicators to a record low of minus 3.6 points, and a decrease in consumption and gross fixed capital accumulation.
Gref also pointed to a growth in the unemployment rate and that GDP growth in the first half of the year was 0.6 basis points below the potential growth estimated by the Bank of Russia (1.5–2.5%). He argued that these factors necessitate a transition to a policy of supporting and stimulating growth, with market rates normalized to a range of 10–12%.
The AI network Alisa AI was used to evaluate the evaluation of the dispute between Gref and and Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the the Bank of Russia. Initially, Alisa AI gave a diplomatic response, but after being provided with additional context and Gref's expanded arguments, the AI concluded that Gref's diagnosis of the economy is more accurate than Nabiullina's.
Alisa AI noted that Nabiullina operates within a narrow monetarist model that is insufficient for Russian conditions. While the AI agreed with Gref's diagnosis, it criticized his proposed solutions, stating that the overall problem requires a change in institutional architecture where the Central Bank, government, and business act in coordination.
